New Seat Details - Warwickshire North

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Warwickshire North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	29,549	57.0%
LAB	20,051	38.7%
LIB	1,096	2.1%
Green	1,014	2.0%
UKIP	151	0.3%
CON Majority	9,498	18.3%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Warwickshire North: Map

List of old seats forming part of Warwickshire North

Old seat: Nuneaton

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Nuneaton, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Nuneaton				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
North Warwickshire	Arley and Whitacre	4,050	Warwickshire North	1,625	996	40	89	54	0	0	0	2,804
North Warwickshire	Hartshill	2,837	Warwickshire North	1,064	704	28	62	19	0	0	0	1,877
Nuneaton and Bedworth	Abbey	5,583	Nuneaton	1,764	2,352	102	143	102	0	0	0	4,463
Nuneaton and Bedworth	Arbury	5,084	Nuneaton	1,805	1,340	79	123	73	0	0	0	3,420
Nuneaton and Bedworth	Attleborough	5,385	Nuneaton	1,988	1,602	84	136	87	0	0	0	3,897
Nuneaton and Bedworth	Bar Pool	5,160	Nuneaton	1,640	1,834	72	139	36	0	0	0	3,721
Nuneaton and Bedworth	Camp Hill	5,312	Nuneaton	1,532	1,928	55	132	31	0	0	0	3,678
Nuneaton and Bedworth	Galley Common	5,834	Nuneaton	2,221	1,661	83	155	38	0	0	0	4,158
Nuneaton and Bedworth	Kingswood	4,768	Nuneaton	1,566	1,741	58	130	32	0	0	0	3,527
Nuneaton and Bedworth	St Nicolas	5,427	Nuneaton	2,355	881	71	124	79	0	0	0	3,510
Nuneaton and Bedworth	Weddington	5,748	Nuneaton	2,255	1,071	103	144	100	0	0	0	3,673
Nuneaton and Bedworth	Wem Brook	5,040	Nuneaton	1,511	2,062	79	124	81	0	0	0	3,857
Nuneaton and Bedworth	Whitestone	5,529	Nuneaton	2,427	844	60	118	30	0	0	0	3,479
	Total	65,757		23,753	19,016	914	1,619	762	0	0	0	46,064

The full details of these calculations are given on the Nuneaton seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Warwickshire North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Warwickshire North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Warwickshire North				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
North Warwickshire	Atherstone Central	2,728	Warwickshire North	1,014	947	49	0	40	0	0	0	2,050
North Warwickshire	Atherstone North	2,659	Warwickshire North	1,091	639	38	0	50	0	0	0	1,818
North Warwickshire	Atherstone South and Mancetter	2,768	Warwickshire North	1,140	677	40	0	33	0	0	0	1,890
North Warwickshire	Baddesley and Grendon	3,063	Warwickshire North	1,301	721	35	0	34	0	0	0	2,091
North Warwickshire	Coleshill North	2,468	Warwickshire North	1,016	619	39	0	29	0	0	0	1,703
North Warwickshire	Coleshill South	2,698	Warwickshire North	1,128	512	30	0	29	0	0	0	1,699
North Warwickshire	Curdworth	2,666	Warwickshire North	1,355	268	24	0	26	0	0	0	1,673
North Warwickshire	Dordon	2,276	Warwickshire North	839	782	29	0	27	0	0	0	1,677
North Warwickshire	Fillongley	2,643	Warwickshire North	1,356	306	24	0	27	0	0	0	1,713
North Warwickshire	Hurley and Wood End	2,880	Warwickshire North	1,154	810	37	0	33	0	0	0	2,034
North Warwickshire	Kingsbury	2,945	Warwickshire North	1,232	658	37	0	33	0	0	0	1,960
North Warwickshire	Newton Regis and Warton	2,712	Warwickshire North	1,313	472	29	0	29	0	0	0	1,843
North Warwickshire	Polesworth East	2,602	Warwickshire North	974	804	40	0	33	0	0	0	1,851
North Warwickshire	Polesworth West	2,623	Warwickshire North	1,108	637	42	0	31	0	0	0	1,818
North Warwickshire	Water Orton	2,721	Warwickshire North	1,283	447	44	0	34	0	0	0	1,808
Nuneaton and Bedworth	Bede	4,910	Warwickshire North	1,609	1,736	92	0	65	0	0	0	3,502
Nuneaton and Bedworth	Exhall	5,760	Warwickshire North	2,123	1,789	107	0	182	0	0	0	4,201
Nuneaton and Bedworth	Heath	5,480	Warwickshire North	1,915	1,833	96	0	68	0	0	0	3,912
Nuneaton and Bedworth	Poplar	5,449	Warwickshire North	1,954	2,098	99	0	74	0	0	0	4,225
Nuneaton and Bedworth	Slough	5,186	Warwickshire North	1,955	1,596	97	0	64	0	0	0	3,712
	Total	67,237		26,860	18,351	1,028	0	941	0	0	0	47,180

The full details of these calculations are given on the Warwickshire North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Warwickshire North

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Warwickshire North
North Warwickshire	Arley and Whitacre	4,214	Nuneaton	1,625	996	40	89	54	0	0	0	2,804
North Warwickshire	Atherstone Central	3,140	Warwickshire North	1,014	947	49	0	40	0	0	0	2,050
North Warwickshire	Atherstone North	2,786	Warwickshire North	1,091	639	38	0	50	0	0	0	1,818
North Warwickshire	Atherstone South and Mancetter	2,896	Warwickshire North	1,140	677	40	0	33	0	0	0	1,890
North Warwickshire	Baddesley and Grendon	3,204	Warwickshire North	1,301	721	35	0	34	0	0	0	2,091
North Warwickshire	Coleshill North	2,610	Warwickshire North	1,016	619	39	0	29	0	0	0	1,703
North Warwickshire	Coleshill South	2,603	Warwickshire North	1,128	512	30	0	29	0	0	0	1,699
North Warwickshire	Curdworth	2,562	Warwickshire North	1,355	268	24	0	26	0	0	0	1,673
North Warwickshire	Dordon	2,569	Warwickshire North	839	782	29	0	27	0	0	0	1,677
North Warwickshire	Fillongley	2,625	Warwickshire North	1,356	306	24	0	27	0	0	0	1,713
North Warwickshire	Hartshill	2,821	Nuneaton	1,064	704	28	62	19	0	0	0	1,877
North Warwickshire	Hurley and Wood End	3,114	Warwickshire North	1,154	810	37	0	33	0	0	0	2,034
North Warwickshire	Kingsbury	3,002	Warwickshire North	1,232	658	37	0	33	0	0	0	1,960
North Warwickshire	Newton Regis and Warton	2,823	Warwickshire North	1,313	472	29	0	29	0	0	0	1,843
North Warwickshire	Polesworth East	2,835	Warwickshire North	974	804	40	0	33	0	0	0	1,851
North Warwickshire	Polesworth West	2,786	Warwickshire North	1,108	637	42	0	31	0	0	0	1,818
North Warwickshire	Water Orton	2,770	Warwickshire North	1,283	447	44	0	34	0	0	0	1,808
Nuneaton and Bedworth	Bede	5,364	Warwickshire North	1,609	1,736	92	0	65	0	0	0	3,502
Nuneaton and Bedworth	Exhall	6,436	Warwickshire North	2,123	1,789	107	0	182	0	0	0	4,201
Nuneaton and Bedworth	Heath	5,992	Warwickshire North	1,915	1,833	96	0	68	0	0	0	3,912
Nuneaton and Bedworth	Poplar	6,472	Warwickshire North	1,954	2,098	99	0	74	0	0	0	4,225
Nuneaton and Bedworth	Slough	5,686	Warwickshire North	1,955	1,596	97	0	64	0	0	0	3,712
	Total	79,310		29,549	20,051	1,096	151	1,014	0	0	0	51,861

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Warwickshire North. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Craig Tracey (CON)
County/Area:	Warwickshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	79,310
Turnout:	65.4%

Warwickshire North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Warwickshire North: Overview

Introduction